Predictions for the UK Net Migration Figures in 2025
It’s a brave Immigration Solicitor who sticks their head above the parapet to make predictions for the UK's 2025 net migration figure.
We, like many others, expect immigration will remain the headline UK news at points throughout 2025. If you need business or individual immigration advice our Immigration Solicitors in London keep up to date with all the changes in immigration policy and provide specialist legal advice.
For immigration law advice call UK Online and London-Based OTS Solicitors on 0203 959 9123 or contact us online.
Our lawyers speak Arabic, Armenian, Farsi, French/Mauritian Creole, Spanish, Tamil Tagalog/Ilonggo, Urdu/Punjabi.
Net UK Migration
Let's recap on the UK net migration figures produced by the Office of National Statistics:
- 866,000 in the year 2021 -2022
- 906,000 in the year 2022-2023 – revised up by 166,000 people from the initial estimate
- 728,000 in the year 2023-2024 – a figure that could go up or down when the 2025 data is available
The vast majority of those entering the UK did so legally with the assistance of Immigration Solicitors and by taking up the government‘s offers of Work Visas, Family Visas, Business Visas or Student Visas. Less than 10% of the 728,000 net migrants in 2024 arrived on a specialist visa. For example, visas for nationals of Afghanistan, Hong Kong or Ukraine.
Will Net UK Migration Go Down in 2025?
Net migration went down by around 20% in 2024, compared to the 2023 figure. Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has said he is committed to reducing net migration further. However, there are no plans to introduce visa caps on legal migrants or to include a target figure for net migration in 2025.
The government's decision to not provide a target net migration figure for 2025 must be seen in the context of UK net migration exceeding 100,000 in every year between 2010 and 2024, except 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was during the time the previous government committed to a net migration figure of tens of thousands. Targets can be tricky.
Skilled Worker Visas
Our Sponsorship Licence Lawyers are reassuring businesses with sponsor licences that if they need to recruit workers from overseas, they can do so provided they retain their sponsor licence and offer overseas recruits a job that qualifies for a sponsored work route such as the Skilled Worker Visa or Health and Care Worker Visa. They also need to allocate a certificate of sponsorship and pay them the minimum salary threshold for the sponsored job. It is therefore business as usual in 2025 subject to a few caveats:
- The minimum salary threshold for the Skilled Worker Visa is now set at £38,700 or the going rate for the job, whichever is higher – that salary threshold reduces the economic viability of recruiting some workers from overseas
- The Home Office is focused on sponsor licence compliance and is committed to weeding out non-compliant sponsor licence holders
- The government has said it will beef up penalties for non-compliant sponsors
- Carers and senior carers on the Health and Care Worker Visa are no longer able to be accompanied to the UK by family members on Dependant Visas
Those are all sticks to reduce the reliance of UK employers on overseas workers but the pull factor for recruiting from overseas remains the inability to recruit suitably skilled or willing workers from the UK. Whilst the government is committed to changing education and training and to welfare reform it is questionable whether skilled UK workers will be available in the next 12 months when businesses need recruits to remain in business or expand.
Family Visas
There is no cap or limit on Family Visa applicants looking to make the UK their home on a Spouse Visa, Unmarried Partner Visa or Civil Partner Visa. One won't be set in 2025. It is therefore anticipated that the number of Family Visa applications will only fall substantially if the government decides to increase the Family Visa financial requirement from its current level of £29,000.
Negotiating the financial requirement can be complicated if a sponsor is self-employed or a company director. Our Spouse Visa Solicitors can help with advice on the financial requirement if your situation is complex or if you are unsure how the transitional arrangements may affect a Family Visa extension application or an Indefinite Leave to Remain application.
Student Visas
Many UK universities are struggling financially as the recent increase in student fees for British students is modest and does not cover increased overheads. The financial pressures that led to educational establishments seeking out international students have not gone away – they have increased. Expect universities to continue to do all they can to sponsor international students on Student Visas. However, Student Visa numbers may fall because most international students are now not able to bring family members with them on Dependant Visas.
A major attraction to coming to the UK to study on a Student Visa is the option of working in the UK after graduation on a Graduate Visa. It’s a popular visa with graduates and UK employers because:
- The international student does not need a job offer from an employer with a sponsor licence and isn’t restricted to jobs eligible for the Skilled Worker Visa
- The employer doesn’t have to pay a Work Visa minimum salary threshold for the graduate to qualify for the Graduate Visa
- During or at the end of the short-term Graduate Visa the visa holder can switch to another visa, such as the Skilled Worker Visa, and eventually apply to settle in the UK
The Graduate Visa is flexible and a draw to international students but Immigration Solicitors anticipate the immigration rules may be tweaked.
Plan for Change
The government intends to publish a “Plan for Change” with its roadmap for reducing both legal and illegal migration into the UK. Whether the plan succeeds in its aims may be difficult to judge if there is no net migration target set for 2025.
You may notice that we have not given a prediction for the 2025 net migration figure. It's hard to do so when there is no government target set but we predict it will be lower than 906,000 people but with UK business needs and families desperate to reunite it will still be hundreds of thousands of people unless there is immediate and radical immigration rules changes.
For an expert opinion, we turn to the Migration Advisory Committee. The Committee advises the government on all things immigration related. The chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee, Brian Bell, said in an interview on Sky News, that he thought "Without any further policy changes, it's likely that it (the net migration figure) will settle at somewhere around 300,000 to perhaps 350,000 as the long-run figure, so higher than it was over the previous 20 years but much lower of course than it is today."
How Can OTS Solicitors Help You
Our Legal 500 recommended Business Immigration Solicitors can help you with all your business immigration, sponsorship licence, sponsor management and Immigration Law Training needs.
We also have a Legal 500 recommended team of Individual Immigration Lawyers able to help visa applicants with applications for Family Visas, Work Visas, Global Mobility, Student Visas and Visitor Visas.
For immigration law advice call UK Online and London-Based OTS Solicitors on 0203 959 9123 or contact us online.
Our lawyers speak Arabic, Armenian, Farsi, French/Mauritian Creole, Spanish, Tamil Tagalog/Ilonggo, Urdu/Punjabi.
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